The Final Rugby World Cup Spot
The scrap for the final spot at RWC 2023
With all but one spot at next year’s Men’s Rugby World Cup confirmed, four teams are converging upon Dubai to battle it out to secure that last precious ticket to France.
The United States, Hong Kong, Kenya and Portugal will compete this November in the famously gruelling heat of Dubai’s The Sevens stadium. At the end of the three-week tournament, only one will be left standing.
Will USA or Portugal return to the Rugby World Cup? Or will we see Hong Kong or Kenya make its debut next year?
For whatever reason, this crucial tournament seems to be flying under the radar. But it promises to be a mix of high stakes, desperation and fierce competition and we at W Rugby think it deserves more attention.
We preview what promises to be an exciting Rugby World Cup 2023 Final Qualification Tournament.
The Big Picture
The four teams fell just short in their respective continental qualifying processes. They will play each other once each in a round-robin format. The top team will join Wales, Australia, Fiji and Georgia in Pool C of RWC 23.
The Teams
Portugal
Current Rank: 20th
World Cup Record: 2007 Pool stages (0 wins, 4 losses)
Head to heads:
vs USA: 0-2
vs Kenya: 1-0
vs Hong Kong: 1-0
How they got here:
Portugal initially finished fourth in the aggregate 2020-22 European Nations Cup table, which left them out RWC 23 qualifying. However because Spain were docked 10 points for fielding an ineligible player, Os Lobos were promoted to 3rd, and qualified for this Tournament. Portugal have been to the big dance once before, in 2007, when they pushed Romania close but lost 107-13 to the All Blacks. Portugal’s recent form is impressive. In June they pushed Italy to the wire, letting a 73rd-minute lead slip to eventually go down 38-31. They have also pushed Japan close in a 25-38 loss and drawn with Georgia (25-25) in the last 12 months.
Underestimate them at your own peril.
United States of America
Current Rank: 19th
World Cup Record:
1987: Pool stage (1 win-2 losses)
1991: Pool stage (0-3)
1999: Pool stage (0-3)
2003: Pool stage (1-3)
2007: Pool stage (0-4)
2011: Pool stage (1-3)
2015: Pool stage (0-4)
2019: Pool stage (0-4)
Head to heads:
vs Portugal: 2-0
vs Kenya: Never played
vs Hong Kong: 3-4
How they got here:
USA suffered shock losses to both Uruguay and Chile in qualifying to finish 3rd in the Americas, earning them a spot at this Tournament for one final chance to qualify.
Being at this Tournament was not the plan for the Eagles. This is a team low on confidence. As 2031 RWC hosts, USA Rugby will be desperate to turn this slide around. That starts with qualifying for next year’s RWC.
Out of the four teams, the Eagles have by far the most rugby pedigree, having only ever missed one World Cup. In 2007, they scored arguably the try of the tournament against the eventual champions.
If they do qualify, they will fancy their chances against Georgia and perhaps even Fiji, both teams they have beaten in the past. However, their current focus will be on qualifying.
Kenya
Current Rank: 33rd
World Cup Record: Never qualified. Finished 4th at the Final Qualification Tournament in 2019.
Head to heads:
vs USA: never played
vs Portugal: 0-1
vs Hong Kong: 1-4 (1 draw)
How they got here:
Kenya got to within one match of qualifying directly for RWC 23, going down to Namibia in 2021. As finalists in the African qualifying tournament they earned themselves a spot at this Tournament for a final chance at qualification.
Kenya has long been a fan favourite on the international sevens circuit, reaching 5 finals and memorably winning the Singapore Sevens in 2016. They were also semi-finalists at the 2009 Rugby Sevens World Cup. They have yet to replicate that success in the 15s game, however.
Kenya are establishing themselves as the third best team in Africa behind South Africa and Namibia. However the Simbas’ limited exposure against non-African teams might see them struggle against their higher-ranked opponents in the Tournament. However, the matches are being played on grass, not on paper. Their relatively unknown factor could pose problems for the other teams.
Hong Kong
Current Rank: 22nd
World Cup Record: Never qualified. Hong Kong reached the Final Qualification Tournament in 2015 (semi-finalists), and 2019 (3rd place).
Head to heads:
vs USA: 4-3
vs Portugal: 1-0
vs Kenya: 4-1 (1 draw)
How they got here:
A penalty after the final hooter helped Hong Kong beat South Korea 23-21 to win the 2022 Asia Cup. This meant Hong Kong qualified for the Asia/Pacific play-off against Tonga, with the winner qualifying for RWC 2023. They pushed Tonga but ultimately went down 44-22, which dropped them to this Tournament for a final chance to qualify.
With a winning head-to-head record against each of their rivals, Hong Kong will see this as a fantastic chance to make their Rugby World Cup debut.
The Dragons have a long rugby history and are currently ranked 22nd, above the likes of Namibia, Russia and Canada, and they will view qualification as overdue.
If they were to win, they would become just the 2nd Asian country to ever qualify for the Rugby World Cup after Japan.
Prediction
This tournament could go down to the wire.
While it is always fun to see new teams at the RWC, qualification is likely to be a step too far for Kenya. However, they will be a potential banana skin for their more-fancied opponents to navigate.
Expect the USA’s experience to come through and for them to qualify for their 9th World Cup. Portugal and Hong Kong will present tough tests, though. The final round between USA and Portugal could be an effective knockout game to qualify for RWC 23.
Our prediction:
1st - USA
2nd - Portugal
3rd - Hong Kong
4th - Kenya
Do you agree? Or better, disagree? Tell us what you think!
Words: Daniel Naidu
